Firstly let me explain what Conf (short for confidence) is and how it is worked out.
As you know, I have 2 primary ratings agencies;
The first is Focus Ratings and the second is Advance Ratings.
They both rates horses in totally different ways.
Focus Ratings uses a self learning algorithm to rate the horses whereas Advance Ratings is purely form based.
When both ratings can rate every horse in a race and, when they both rate the horses in exactly the same order, that race becomes a Focus Ratings R9 rated race.
For Focus Ratings, every horse in a race is given a Confidence number.
The second rated horse always has a Confidence of 100%.
All the other horses in the race have a Confidence which equates to that horse’s rating divided by the rating of the second rated horse.
Thus, imagine a race where the top three rated (in descending ratings order) horses are…
Black Beauty – rated at 4.0
Speed Simon – rated at 3.0 and
Dennis The Donkey – rated at 2.0
Speedy Simon, being the second rated horse, has a confidence of 100%
Black Beauty, being the top rated horse, has a confidence of 4.0 divided by 3.0 which equals 133%
Dennis The Donkey, being the third rated horse, has a confidence of 66%
The logic for this system is that, where the Confidence of the top rated horse (and, thus, that horse’s rating) is significantly higher than that of the second rated (and, logically, all other horses in that race), the higher the probability of the top rated horse winning the race.
From the 5 years of data there have been 1589 races where the top rated horse had a Confidence of 130% or higher.
Whilst these are blindly profitable for the top rated horse, we only make 16 points profit.
So I look at those race types which were more profitable than others.
The data for this system is shown in the systems spreadsheet which may be found at R9-Portfolio-Special.xlsx
The tab named 2). 130% + Conf shows all the races (over the 5 year period) shows the top rated horses for every qualifying race (i.e. where the top rated horse has a confidence of 130% or higher.)
The tab named 2). Race Type shows all the race types and their statistics. If you scroll down you will see a refined set of data – these are the blindly profitable race types for this system.
As you can see, these refined race types gave us 681 selections over the 5 year data sample. This equates to 2.77 races per week.
From these races there were 355 winners.
This equates to a strike rate of 52.13% and a POI (Profit on Investment) of 66.50% to BSP (assuming a 2% commission.)
The tab named 2). Selections show the actual selections over the 5 year period.
As you can see, the win columns shows plenty of green (for a win bet) – I like plenty of green.
My kindest regards
