The Systems…
The following are the 7 systems (using Focus Ratings R9 Ratings) that Portfolio Betting currently uses.
As time goes on and more systems are added, the performance of all systems will be reviewed and the lesser performing systems will be swapped out.
However, the Reward/Risk balance will be maintained.
1). 5 Runners or Less
The logic for this system is that, the fewer the runners in a race, the higher the probability of the top rated horse winning the race.
From the 5 years of data there have been 1070 races where there were 5 runners or less.
Whilst these are blindly profitable for the top rated horse, we only make 41 points profit.
So I look at those race types which were more profitable than others.
The data for this system is shown in the systems spreadsheet which may be found at R9-Portfolio-Special.xlsx
The tab named 1). 5 runners or less shows all the races (over the 5 year period) shows the top rated horses for every qualifying race (i.e. where there are 5 runners or less.)
The tab named 2). Race Type shows all the race types and their statistics. If you scroll down you will see a refined set of data – these are the blindly profitable race types for this system.
As you can see, these refined race types gave us 581 selections over the 5 year data sample. This equates to 2.36 races per week.
From these races there were 331 winners.
This equates to a strike rate of 56.97% and a POI (Profit on Investment) of 58.32% to BSP (assuming a 2% commission.)
The tab named 1). Selections show the actual selections over the 5 year period.
As you can see, the win column shows plenty of green (for a winning bet) – I like plenty of green.
2). 130% Conf
Firstly let me explain what Conf (short for confidence) is and how it is worked out.
As you know, I have 2 primary ratings agencies;
The first is Focus Ratings and the second is Advance Ratings.
They both rates horses in totally different ways.
Focus Ratings uses a self learning algorithm to rate the horses whereas Advance Ratings is purely form based.
When both ratings can rate every horse in a race and, when they both rate the horses in exactly the same order, that race becomes a Focus Ratings R9 rated race.
For Focus Ratings, every horse in a race is given a Confidence number.
The second rated horse always has a Confidence of 100%.
All the other horses in the race have a Confidence which equates to that horse’s rating divided by the rating of the second rated horse.
Thus, imagine a race where the top three rated (in descending ratings order) horses are…
Black Beauty – rated at 4.0
Speed Simon – rated at 3.0 and
Dennis The Donkey – rated at 2.0
Speedy Simon, being the second rated horse, has a confidence of 100%
Black Beauty, being the top rated horse, has a confidence of 4.0 divided by 3.0 which equals 133%
Dennis The Donkey, being the third rated horse, has a confidence of 66%
The logic for this system is that, where the Confidence of the top rated horse (and, thus, that horse’s rating) is significantly higher than that of the second rated (and, logically, all other horses in that race), the higher the probability of the top rated horse winning the race.
From the 5 years of data there have been 1589 races where the top rated horse had a Confidence of 130% or higher.
Whilst these are blindly profitable for the top rated horse, we only make 16 points profit.
So I look at those race types which were more profitable than others.
The data for this system is shown in the systems spreadsheet which may be found at R9-Portfolio-Special.xlsx
The tab named 2). 130% + Conf shows all the races (over the 5 year period) shows the top rated horses for every qualifying race (i.e. where the top rated horse has a confidence of 130% or higher.)
The tab named 2). Race Type shows all the race types and their statistics. If you scroll down you will see a refined set of data – these are the blindly profitable race types for this system.
As you can see, these refined race types gave us 681 selections over the 5 year data sample. This equates to 2.77 races per week.
From these races there were 355 winners.
This equates to a strike rate of 52.13% and a POI (Profit on Investment) of 66.50% to BSP (assuming a 2% commission.)
The tab named 2). Selections show the actual selections over the 5 year period.
As you can see, the win columns shows plenty of green (for a win bet) – I like plenty of green.
3). Winner LTO
This system concentrates on top rated horses which won their last race.
The logic for this system is that, it shows that the horse is…
a). Capable of winning and
b). Probably in good form.
From the 5 years of data there have been 3845 races where the top rated horse was a winner in its last race.
Whilst these are only slightly unprofitable profitable for all the top rated horse there is substantial bias towards some race types.
So I looked at those race types which were more profitable than others.
The data for this system is shown in the systems spreadsheet which may be found at R9-Portfolio-Special.xlsx
The tab named 3). Winner LTO shows all the races (over the 5 year period) shows the top rated horses for every qualifying race (i.e. where the top rated horse won its last race.)
The tab named 3). Race Type shows all the race types and their statistics. If you scroll down you will see a refined set of data – these are the blindly profitable race types for this system.
As you can see, these refined race types gave us 1329 selections over the 5 year data sample. This equates to 5.40 races per week.
From these races there were 548 winners.
This equates to a strike rate of 41.23% and a POI (Profit on Investment) of 23.12% to BSP (assuming a 2% commission.)
The tab named 3). Selections show the actual selections over the 5 year period.
As you can see, the win columns shows plenty of green (for a win bet) – I like plenty of green.
4). Clear Favs
This system concentrates on top rated horses which is the clear favourite based upon my forecast price.
In those races where the top rated horse is a co-favourite or a joint favourite there can be no selection.
From the 5 years of data there have been 7100 races where the top rated horse was a clear favourite.
Whilst these are only slightly unprofitable profitable for all the top rated horse there is substantial bias towards some race types.
So I looked at those race types which were more profitable than others.
The data for this system is shown in the systems spreadsheet which may be found at R9-Portfolio-Special.xlsx
The tab named 4). Clear Favs shows all the races (over the 5 year period) shows the top rated horses for every qualifying race (i.e. where the top rated horse won its last race.)
The tab named 4). Race Type shows all the race types and their statistics. If you scroll down you will see a refined set of data – these are the blindly profitable race types for this system.
As you can see, these refined race types gave us 1242 selections over the 5 year data sample. This equates to 5.05 races per week.
From these races there were 517 winners.
This equates to a strike rate of 41.63% and a POI (Profit on Investment) of 29.73% to BSP (assuming a 2% commission.)
The tab named 4). Selections show the actual selections over the 5 year period.
As you can see, the win columns shows plenty of green (for a win bet) – I like plenty of green.
5). High Priced Heroes
By observing the high prices that the top rated horses sometimes win at, I decided to take a look at which races types those wins come from.
Now, generally, the higher the forecast price, the lower the strike rate.
However, as we all know…
Strike Rate is Vanity, it’s Profits that count.
From the 5 years of data there have been 1695 races where the top rated horse has a forecast price (my forecast) of 6.0 to 20.0
Whilst these are blindly profitable profitable for all the top rated horse we only make 65 points profit over the 5 years of the data set.
So I looked at those race types which were more profitable than others.
The data for this system is shown in the systems spreadsheet which may be found at R9-Portfolio-Special.xlsx
The tab named 5). FC >=6.00 & FC =<20.00 shows all the races (over the 5 year period) shows the top rated horses for every qualifying race (i.e. where the top rated horse has a FC or 6.0 to 20.0 inclusive)
The tab named 5). Race Type shows all the race types and their statistics. If you scroll down you will see a refined set of data – these are the blindly profitable race types for this system.
As you can see, these refined race types gave us 677 selections over the 5 year data sample. This equates to 2.75 races per week.
From these races there were 155 winners.
This equates to a strike rate of 22.90% and a POI (Profit on Investment) of 56.61% to BSP (assuming a 2% commission.)
The tab named 5). Selections show the actual selections over the 5 year period.
As you can see, the win columns shows high priced winners – I like high priced winners.
6. LTO<20
This system concentrates on top rated horses which are running again less than 20 days since their last race.
From the 5 years of data there have been 5737 races where the top rated horse was a clear favourite.
Whilst these are only slightly unprofitable profitable for all the top rated horse there is substantial bias towards some race types.
So I looked at those race types which were more profitable than others.
The data for this system is shown in the systems spreadsheet which may be found at R9-Portfolio-Special.xlsx
The tab named 6). LTO < 20 shows all the races (over the 5 year period) shows the top rated horses for every qualifying race (i.e. where the top rated horse is running less than 20 days since its last race.)
The tab named 6). Race Type shows all the race types and their statistics. If you scroll down you will see a refined set of data – these are the blindly profitable race types for this system.
As you can see, these refined race types gave us 1184 selections over the 5 year data sample. This equates to 4.81 races per week.
From these races there were 433 winners.
This equates to a strike rate of 36.57% and a POI (Profit on Investment) of 32.75% to BSP (assuming a 2% commission.)
The tab named 6). Selections show the actual selections over the 5 year period.
As you can see, the win column shows plenty of green (for a win bet) – I like plenty of green.
7). Beaten Favs
This system concentrates on top rated horses which were the favourite in the last race but didn’t win that race.
From the 5 years of data there have been 1003 races where the top rated horse was a beaten favourite.
Whilst these are profitable profitable for all the top rated horse we only make 67 points over that period.
So I looked at those race types which were more profitable than others.
The data for this system is shown in the systems spreadsheet which may be found at R9-Portfolio-Special.xlsx
The tab named 7). Beaten Favs shows all the races (over the 5 year period) shows the top rated horses for every qualifying race.
The tab named 7). Race Type shows all the race types and their statistics. If you scroll down you will see a refined set of data – these are the blindly profitable race types for this system.
As you can see, these refined race types gave us 469 selections over the 5 year data sample. This equates to 1.90 races per week.
From these races there were 199 winners.
This equates to a strike rate of 65.89% and a POI (Profit on Investment) of 64.40% to BSP (assuming a 2% commission.)
The tab named 7). Selections show the actual selections over the 5 year period.
As you can see, the win column shows plenty of green (for a win bet) – I like plenty of green.
